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Rains and relief: the outlook for continued drought in the Horn of Africa

NAIROBI (Oct. 16) – On this World Food Day, rain may be falling in some parts of the Horn of Africa. But there is no end in sight to the crisis that has left tens of thousands of people dead and hundreds of thousands on the edge of starvation.

Each year CARE joins the humanitarian community and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation to observe World Food Day, spotlighting the global fight against food insecurity. That struggle is more relevant than ever in the countries of the Horn of Africa, where more than 13 million people remain locked in the grip of the world’s worst food crisis.

“People who have survived a harsh climate for centuries are facing new circumstances that are beyond their traditional capacity to cope,” said Emma Naylor Ngugi, CARE Regional Director for East and Central Africa. “Even some of the world’s richest countries have been overwhelmed by the confusing reality of a changing climate. Think how much worse it is for those with few resources.”

Three months after the U.N. first declared famine in parts of southern Somalia, on July 20, about 4 million people in that country are in need of humanitarian assistance. Some 750,000 Somalis face the risk of a slow death from starvation. Humanitarian relief efforts are ramping up as quickly as possible, but face huge challenges, especially due to insecurity and the difficulty of accessing hard-hit regions.

Annual rains that typically run from October to November are projected to bring some relief in parts of Ethiopia and Kenya, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). But the outlook is not nearly as good for the worst affected parts of Somalia. And even if the rainy season starts out well, forecasters are warning that they may end early, a catastrophe for subsistence farmers who plant precious seeds and depend on rain to nourish them.

“Even in a best-case scenario, it will take a long time to recover from lost seasons of agricultural production.” said Naylor Ngugi. “Many of the most affected people are herders, and have lost a large proportion of their animals to drought. It will take them years to overcome that loss.”

CARE is responding to the crisis in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia with immediate relief, including food distributions, safe water and sanitation and support for the treatment of acute malnutrition among children under 5. To date we have reached more than 1.5 million people.

CARE’s longer-term work in the region includes efforts designed to help communities become more resilient in the face of ongoing drought, climate change, and loss of grazing land. CARE works with communities throughout the Horn of Africa to help them develop new source of income, conserve land and water resources, access education, and develop community-based disaster risk reduction strategies. CARE seeks generous donations of US$320 million to fund this work over the next five years. To date, we have raised a total of $64 million.

“Even if it rained everywhere in the Horn of Africa today, it would not spell the end of what is a complex and ongoing crisis for those affected,” said Naylor Ngugi. “Their world is changing and we must commit to stand with them as they adapt to an unknown future.”

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