El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that can disrupt weather systems around the world with devastating effect, increasing the risk of droughts, flooding and food insecurity. Its impacts are often most severe for communities already facing poverty, conflict or climate vulnerability, especially women and girls.
How does El Niño work?
El Niño is part of a complex natural climate cycle that affects ocean temperatures and disrupts global weather patterns.
An El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rise 0.5 °C above the long-term average. During an El Niño, the winds that typically blow east-to-west weaken or reverse, and warmer surface water spreads across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
This increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. Some countries may experience much wetter conditions than usual, while others face unusually dry weather.
How often does El Niño happen?
El Niño happens roughly every 2 to 7 years and usually lasts around 9 to 12 months. However, it does not follow a strict or predictable pattern. The gap between events varies and each El Niño event is of varying strength and duration.
- The longest recorded El Niño event lasted for 18 months, from summer 1986 to spring 1988.
- The last completed El Niño event took place from June 2023 to April 2024.
- A new El Niño phase was officially declared to be developing in June 2026.
- The current El Niño is predicted to intensify over the next few months, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.
What impacts can El Niño cause around the world?
El Niño can have devastating effects for communities, economies and ecosystems across the globe. Common impacts linked to El Niño include:
- Drought: In some regions, El Niño can reduce rainfall and contribute to prolonged drought conditions. For example, the 2023/2024 El Niño led to widespread crop failures, livestock deaths and water shortages across Southern Africa.
- Flooding: Other regions may experience heavier rainfall and increased flooding, damaging homes, infrastructure and farmland. Intense rainfall fuelled by El Niño lead to extensive flooding throughout the Horn of Africa in November 2023 – bringing death, destruction and displacement in its wake.
- Food insecurity: Extreme weather can disrupt farming, reduce harvests and increase food prices, making it harder for families to afford enough nutritious food. As many as 645 million people worldwide were facing hunger in 2025. El Niño could push millions more to the brink of starvation.
- Health risks: Flooding, heatwaves and water shortages can increase the spread of disease and put additional pressure on healthcare systems.
- Displacement and economic loss: Climate shocks linked to El Niño can force people from their homes, interrupt education and livelihoods, and deepen existing poverty and inequality.
Why does El Niño hit vulnerable communities hardest?
El Niño affects weather patterns around the world, but its impacts are not felt equally. For communities already facing poverty, conflict, displacement or food insecurity, a shift in rainfall or temperature can quickly become a humanitarian crisis.
Many of the communities CARE International works with depend on rain-fed agriculture, livestock, fishing or small-scale food production for their livelihoods. When El Niño disrupts seasonal rains, crops can fail, water sources can dry up, livestock can die and food prices can rise.
El Niño can also act as a ‘risk multiplier’ for hunger and poverty. Drought in one region and flooding in another can disrupt food production, damage roads and markets, reduce household income and make nutritious food harder to access. Families may be forced to sell livestock, reduce meals, withdraw children from school or migrate in search of work, increasing long-term vulnerability.
How does El Niño affect women and girls?
Women and girls are often among the hardest hit when climate shocks affect food, water, health and livelihoods. Extreme weather linked to El Niño can turn existing pressures into acute humanitarian need, especially for those already affected by poverty, inequality or conflict.
Existing inequalities deepen: There are already 172.3 million women and girls at risk of food insecurity in the countries expected to be worst affected by El Niño (link to PR). When food becomes scarce, women and girls are often more likely to eat last and least; in almost all of the most-at-risk countries, more women and girls are going hungry than men (link to PR). Girls may also be pulled out of school to help at home or because families can no longer afford education costs.
Unpaid workload increases: In many communities, women are more likely to be responsible for growing food, collecting water, preparing meals, caring for children and supporting older or sick family members. When droughts, floods or failed harvests make these daily tasks more difficult, women’s unpaid workload often increases. They may have to walk further for water, spend more time finding food, or take on additional work to support their families.
Women and girls may be more at risk: In times of displacement or economic stress, women and girls can also face increased risks of gender-based violence, child marriage and exploitation.
Women’s leadership remains essential: Women are not only disproportionately affected by climate crises, they are also central to the response. Women farmers, community leaders, savings group members and local organisations often have deep knowledge of what their communities need before, during and after a disaster. Supporting women’s leadership is therefore essential to building resilience that works for everyone.
How can communities prepare for El Niño?
CARE works with communities before, during and after climate shocks to help reduce the impact of droughts, floods, hunger and displacement. Our approach combines immediate humanitarian assistance with long-term climate adaptation, recognising that El Niño-related crises are not isolated events but part of a wider pattern of increasing climate disruption.
Acting before crisis hits
CARE’s Early Action Fund supports communities to take preventive action before the worst impacts of a crisis take hold. This is known as early or anticipatory action and is an effective way to reduce the impact of predictable climate-related shocks.
Our approach is locally-led: we work with communities to understand local climate risks and support them to develop solutions that will work best for them. Activities can include putting in place early warning systems, local disaster planning, pre-positioned emergency support, anticipatory cash assistance and practical steps to protect crops, livestock and water supplies.
Acting early saves lives, protects livelihoods and reduces the humanitarian cost[EM2] . It also helps families avoid damaging coping strategies, such as selling productive assets, taking children out of school or leaving their homes in search of work.
Advancing nature-based solutions
Nature-based solutions combine environmental restoration with livelihoods opportunities and are central to CARE’s approach. Interventions may include restoring watersheds and degraded land, promoting agroforestry, or supporting coastal ecosystem protection.
These interventions not only buffer extreme weather impacts but also reduce food loss and waste by improving soil health, water retention, and post-harvest stability. By involving local communities in development and implementation via an innovative eco-savings group model, they also provide a valuable source of livelihood security.
Strengthening food security and livelihoods
El Niño can disrupt food systems from harvest to market. CARE supports climate-resilient food systems by working with farmers and communities to diversify crops, improve storage, reduce food loss and waste, strengthen local markets and protect livelihoods.
This includes practical solutions such as solar drying, safe grain storage, bio-fertiliser, agroforestry, regenerative agriculture, solar-powered irrigation and women-led food processing businesses. These approaches can improve food security, support women farmers and build climate resilience.
Improving water, health and essential services
During El Niño-related droughts and floods, families may face unsafe water, disease outbreaks, malnutrition and reduced access to healthcare or education. CARE supports emergency and long-term water, sanitation and hygiene services, climate-resilient health systems, nutrition support and continuity of education.
This integrated approach helps communities cope with immediate impacts while strengthening the basic services they rely on in future crises.
Enabling women’s leadership and financial resilience
CARE supports women’s leadership through savings groups, inclusive finance, leadership training and partnerships with women-led organisations. Village Savings and Loan Associations, including in emergencies, can provide women and families with flexible financial support before and during climate shocks.
These approaches help women access cash, invest in livelihoods, adopt climate-smart technologies and take part in decisions that affect their communities.
Working with women-led organisations also helps ensure early action plans and disaster preparedness systems reflect the needs and priorities of women and girls.
How can I support communities affected by El Niño?
We know the impacts El Niño can have. Together, we can help women and their communities prepare before the worst shocks are felt.
With the right knowledge, tools and support, they can protect what matters most, saving lives, livelihoods, and homes.
Your donation today could help provide:
🌱 Drought-resistant seeds to help families grow food despite unpredictable rainfall.
💧 Water storage and filtration systems to help communities access safe drinking water.
📢 Early warning systems and preparedness training so families can act before disaster strikes.
📦 Emergency food and hygiene supplies to help families stay safe before a crisis escalates.
Preparing for a crisis is not only more effective, it’s also more cost-effective. For every £1 invested in early action, up to £7 can be saved in emergency aid costs.
Frequently Asked Questions About El Niño
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures. It can disrupt global weather patterns and increase the likelihood of droughts, floods and heatwaves.
Is El Niño happening right now?
Yes, El Niño is happening right now, and is predicted to intensify over the next few months, with a 97% chance it will last through to early spring 2027. Typically, El Niño lasts around 9-12 months and peaks around December.
What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño is the opposite phase of a related climate pattern known as La Niña, which is associated with cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures. Both El Niño and La Niña can lead to extreme weather events. Both are unpredictable, but El Niño tends to be more intense, while La Niña tends to be longer-lasting. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
What is a super El Niño?
A ‘super El Niño’ is not an official term, but is often used to describe a very strong El Niño event – usually defined as average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rising by 2 °C or more. When this happens, weather events caused by El Niño can be even more intense. Forecasters are indicating a high probability that the current El Niño will be extremely strong.
Which countries are most affected by El Niño?
The countries at highest risk of severe humanitarian impacts caused or worsened by the current El Niño include Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Pakistan, The Philippines, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. In these countries, environmental pressures from extreme weather events are most likely to intersect with existing poverty, conflict or climate vulnerability.
Does El Niño affect the UK?
El Niño disrupts global weather patterns and as such can potentially affect the weather in all countries. However, the impact is likely to be less significant for countries such as the UK which are further from the tropical Pacific. El Niño years tend to correlate with a colder, drier winter for the UK.
Severe droughts and floods in affected countries can have an indirect impact for the UK as they can lead to inflated global food prices and supply chain disruptions.
Is El Niño caused by climate change?
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring weather phenomenon. However, climate change can amplify the effects of El Niño. The world is getting hotter, and when higher baseline temperatures are combined with El Niño, extreme weather events can become even more severe and unpredictable.
What is CARE doing to help communities affected by El Niño?
CARE combines emergency response with long-term climate adaptation for communities facing climate shocks. This includes anticipatory action, disaster preparedness, climate-resilient agriculture, water and sanitation services, and support for women-led resilience initiatives.